鉴于美国和欧洲经济状态十分脆弱，如果势不可挡的中国经济也开始放缓，全球经济增长将会如何？目前，似乎很少有投资者或决策者认真考虑这种假设。
在2001年的全球经济衰退和1997年-1998年亚洲金融危机中，中国抗跌能力令人瞩目。这使得几乎所有人都相信，今年中国经济将不可避免地再次实现两位数的增长。
但我们应当如此乐观吗？实际上，未来几年中国经济增长大幅放缓（至少其中一年的增速低于6%）的可能性为50%。由于中国通胀不断加剧、市场改革明显倒退和出口需求下降，2008年可能是颇具挑战性的一年。
诚然，事实一再击败了那些对中国经济增长不够乐观的预测者。既然2007年经济增速达到11.4%，加之北京奥运会将于夏季开幕，2008年怎么会有所不同呢？
尽管人们应当对中国领导者近年来取得的卓著成就给予应有的尊重，但与其它任何新兴市场一样，中国在经济、金融、社会和政治方面也面临“雷区”，此外还有大规模的环境问题需要解决。纵观历史，没有哪个新兴市场能够永远逃过危机的轮回。
逾6%的通胀是迫在眉睫的问题。那些认为通胀是由于猪肉供应太少、而非钱太多造成的人是错误的。中国相对固定的汇率制度，迫使政府向经济投入巨量的人民币。
中国货币供应量猛增，是其1.4万亿美元巨额外汇储备所带来的一个副作用。真正令人惊讶的是，通胀并未在更早的时候爆发。
中国当局必须将通货膨胀的妖魔放回瓶子里。在中国，受到高度管制的金融市场使通常的货币控制工具（例如短期利率）的效率相对较低，因此要想遏制通胀并非易事。由于数以百万计闲置的农民涌入城市，进而抑制了工资水平，因此中国迄今为止避免了通胀问题。但由于多数能力最强的工人已转移到城市，满足蓬勃发展的中国工厂劳动力需求的挑战正在加剧。
保护主义是另一个不断加剧的风险。由于整个发达世界的收入和财富分化日益加剧，政界人士可能很快就会开始对中国发难，对汽车零部件、钢铁、纸产品，当然还有纺织品进行贸易制裁。与2001年全球经济衰退时期相比，中国爆炸式的出口增长，使其更易受到出口下滑的影响。
然而，中国发展面临的最大威胁，可能来自其国内贫富差距迅速扩大所造成的压力。
世界银行(World Bank)的统计数据显示，中国的收入差距已经超过了美国和俄罗斯，这可不是件小事。贫富差距不断扩大对政治体制造成了极大的压力，这在近来一系列旨在缓解该问题、却考虑不周的政策中表现得十分明显。中国政府最近试图利用价格管制措施来解决食品价格上涨问题，这便是一个非常明显的例证。
但含糊的新劳动法也是如此。至少从字面上理解，该法律阻止企业解雇具有10年及以上工龄的工人。中国好像突然希望把自己变成法国。
实际上，中国经济面临的最大危险在于，经过多年以市场为导向的改革后，中国领导人似乎在丧失对市场的信心，并开始采取诸如配给制等政策，向过去的共产主义时代倒退。
面对通胀上升、投资剧增和全球经济走软，很难说现在是中国大幅降低其体制灵活性的时机。
从历史角度看，当经济或者金融危机开始显露，而同时政策改革开始倒退的时候，新兴市场就会陷入困境。如果政府通过提供更多和更好的医疗和养老金来改善社保网络，而不是通过劳动力市场法令来解决贫富差距，将起到更好的效果。
中国应当继续加快人民币升值步伐，进而抑制货币供应增长，而非通过控制价格来解决通胀问题。
如果中国经济增长大幅放缓，而欧洲和美国的经济增长仍然疲弱，那么近年来全球利率水平较低、大宗商品价格高企和全球经济增长强劲的一幕将成为历史。
对于那些因担心美国经济增长而失眠的全球决策者和投资者而言，他们应当更多地关注来自地球另一端不断上升的风险。
本文作者是哈佛大学经济学教授、国际货币基金组织(IMF)前首席经济学家。[next]
STUFFING CHINA'S GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE
Kenneth Rogoff
Given the highly vulnerable state of the US and European economies, what would happen to global growth if the Chinese juggernaut also started sputtering? Few investors or policymakers seem to be seriously contemplating this scenario.
China's remarkable resilience to both the 2001 global recession and the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis has convinced almost everyone that another year of double-digit growth is all but inevitable.
But should we be so sanguine? In fact, the odds of a significant growth recession in China (at least one year of sub-6 per cent growth) during the next couple of years are 50 per cent. With Chinese inflation spiking, notable backpedalling on market reforms and falling export demand, 2008 could be particularly challenging.
True, reality has consistently flattened China forecasters who are anything less than ebullient. With 11.4 per cent growth in 2007 and the Olympics coming up this summer, why should 2008 be different?
With all due respect to the extraordinary recent performance of China's managers, the country faces economic, financial, social and political landmines just like any other emerging market, with epic environmental problems to boot. And throughout history no emerging market has escaped bouts of crisis indefinitely.
Inflation of more than 6 per cent is the immediate problem. Those who think inflation is caused by too little pork rather than too much money are wrong. China's relatively pegged exchange rates system has led the authorities to flood the economy with renminbi.
Rampant money supply growth is the flipside of the country's massive $1,400bn accumulation of foreign currency reserves. The real surprise is that inflation did not sprout earlier.
The authorities must stuff the inflation genie back in the bottle. It is not going to be easy in an economy where highly controlled financial markets render normal instruments of monetary control (for example, the short-term interest rate) relatively ineffective. Until now China has avoided this problem as millions of idle farm workers moved to the cities, keeping wages in check. But as many of the most able workers have already migrated, the challenge of filling China's burgeoning factories is intensifying.
Protectionism is another growing risk. With income and wealth inequality rising throughout the developed world, politicians may soon start lashing out at China with trade sanctions on automobile parts, steel, paper products and, of course, textiles. China's explosive export growth has made it far more vulnerable to a fall in exports than it was during the 2001 global recession.
Perhaps the greatest threat to China's expansion, however, comes from pressures created by its own exploding inequality levels.
According to World Bank statistics, income inequality in China has leap-frogged that of the US and Russia, which is no small feat. Rising inequality is placing enormous strains on the political system, as is evident from a recent sequence of ill-considered policies that have been aimed at mitigating the problem. The government's recent attempt to fight food inflation by using price controls is a highly conspicuous example.
But so, too, is the dubious new labour law, which, at least on paper, prevents companies from firing workers with 10 years or more experience. It is as if China suddenly hopes to transform itself into France.
Indeed the greatest danger to China's economy is that after years of market-oriented reform, the country's leadership seems to be losing faith in markets and adopting policies such as rationing that turn back the clock to old-style communist days.
With rising inflation, bloated investment and a soft global economy, now is hardly the time for China to make its system dramatically more inflexible.
Historically, emerging markets get into trouble when policy reform is moving backwards at the same time as an economic or financial crisis is starting to unfold. Rather than try to deal with inequality by labour market fiat, the government would do better to improve the social safety net through provision of more and better healthcare and pensions.
Rather than deal with inflation through price caps, China should continue to accelerate exchange rate appreciation, thereby reining in money growth.
If China were to slow dramatically while growth in Europe and the US was still weak, the recent paradigm of low global interest rates, high commodity prices and strong global growth would be history.
Global policymakers and investors who are losing sleep over US growth ought to be paying more attention to rising risks coming from the other side of the globe.
The writer is professor of economics at Harvard University and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund ．
评论
收藏
打印
